Analytical Reports & Charts

Quick download links are directly below. Report descriptions with additional download links are below the "Quick Links" section. Questions or comments can be emailed to info@intelcenter.com.

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Quick Links

• al-Qaeda Messaging/Attacks Timeline v8.0 - 22 July 2010 (156k PDF) - NEW
• Jihadi Ops Tempo Statistics (JOTS) v1.7 - 19 August 2009 (1.1MB PDF)
• Gaza Response: Analysis of Jihadist Statements & Threatened Targets v1.0 - 30 January 2009 (428k PDF)
• al-Qaeda Messaging Statistics (QMS) v3.3 - 9 September 2007 (1.2MB PDF)
• Jihadi Attack Kill Statistics (JAKS) v1.8 - 17 August 2007 (728k PDF)
• Jihadi Tactics & Targeting Statistics (JTATS) v1.9 - 2 July 2007 (708k PDF)
• al-Zawahiri Video Reference (ZVR) v1.7 - 2 August 2006 (456k PDF)
• Jihadi Master Video Guide (JMVG) v1.1 - 18 May 2006 (2.6MB PDF)
• Iraqi Insurgent Linkages Based on Recent Group Statements Chart - 13 Feb. 2006 - 13 February 2006 (282k JPG)
• al-Qaeda Messaging Dissemination Link Analysis v1.0 - 19 January 2006 (88k PDF)
• al-Qaeda Warning Cycle Completion for CONUS (QWCC-CONUS) v1.1 - 9 December 2005 (440k PDF)
• Jihadi Tactical Execution Timing Statistics (JTETS) v1.3 - 9 November 2005 (312k PDF)
• Standing Assessment Brief on Most Likely Future Baseline Level Jihadi Attack Activity - 7 August 2005
• Ayman al-Zawahiri Audio/Video Release Analysis (AZAVRA) v1.1 - 5 August 2005 (320k PDF)
• London Tube Bus Attack (LTBA) v1.5 - 28 July 2005 (1MB PDF)
• London Tube Bus Attack Follow-On Strike (LTBAFS) v1.3 - 28 July 2005 (696k PDF)
• Egypt Sharm el-Sheikh Bombings (ESSB) v1.1 - 23 July 2005 (168k PDF)
• Evolution of Jihadi Video v1.0 - 11 May 2005 (1.2MB PDF)
• Osama bin Laden Message Analysis & Threat Assessment v1.1 - 8 November 2004 (920k PDF)
• al-Qaeda Videos & 3rd 9-11 Anniversary v1.0 - 1 September 2004 (248k PDF)
• al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula: Shooting, Hostage Taking, Kidnapping Wave - May/June 2004 v1.1 - 10 July 2004 (1MB PDF)
• al-Qaeda Targeting Guidance v1.0 - 1 April 2004 (208k PDF)
• al-Qaeda Operational Tempo - Madrid Follow-on Attack Assessment v1.0 - 14 March 2004 (208k PDF)
• al-Qaeda 2003 Operational Tempo: Multiple Large-Scale Strikes in Rapid Succession Chart - 14 March 2004 (280k JPG)
• "Banners of Righteousness of the Ansar al-Sunna Mujahideen in Iraq" Video v1.0 - 23 February 2004 (296k PDF)
• al-Qaeda's "Badr al-Riyadh" Video v1.1 - 8 February 2004 (1.3MB PDF)
• Osama bin Laden Audio Release Analysis v1.1 - 4 January 2004 (144k PDF)
• al Qaeda's Martyrs of Confrontations v1.0 - 8 December 2003 (451k PDF)
• al-Qaeda's Riyadh Martyrdom Tapes v1.0 - 18 October 2003 (395k PDF)
• al-Qaeda Attack/Messaging Statistics v1.0 - 22 August 2003 (479k PDF)
• al-Qaeda & Affiliate Ops Tempo Chart - 22 August 2003
• al-Qaeda & Affiliate Ops Tempo Chart with Trend Line - 22 August 2003
• al-Qaeda/al-Ablaj Threat Assessment v1.0 - 30 May 2003 (197k PDF)
• al-Qaeda Wave Attack Assessment v1.0 - 19 May 2003 (163k PDF)
• Morocco Casablanca Bombings v1.1 - 19 May 2003 (145k PDF)
• Saudi Compound Bombings v1.4 - 16 May 2003 (196k PDF)
• al-Qaeda’s Advice for Mujahideen in Iraq: Lessons Learned in Afghanistan v1.0 – 14 April 2003 (2.12MB PDF)
• al-Qaeda Threat to Oil Industry and US Allies v1.0 - 16 October 2002 (218k PDF)
• al-Qaeda Tactic/Target Brief v1.5 - 14 June 2002 (235k PDF)
• al-Qaeda Individuals/Organizations Link Analysis - v0.9 (217k PDF)


NOTE: You need Adobe Acrobat or Acrobat Reader 8.0 or newer to view the reports. Older versions can result in "encryption" and other errors. You can download the latest version for free by clicking here. If you're getting an error about being unable to decrypt the report it means your Adobe Acrobat or Adobe Reader software needs to be upgraded

NOTE: LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE - FOR OFFICIAL USE ONLY (LES//FOUO) reports are available in the IntelCenter SIG of the FBI's LEO network as well as release points managed by the US Army Intelligence Information Services (DA IIS) on SIPRNET and JWICS. Unrestricted versions can also be found in the portals managed by DA-IIS on OSIS and AKO.

Jihadi Tactics & Targeting Statistics (JTATS)
v1.9

The report has been updated to include the 2 Jul. 2007 attack against Spanish tourists in Yemen. It provides a statistical breakout of targeting selection and tactics frequency in al-Qaeda and affiliate operations from 1998 to 2 Jul. 2007. It is a working document and frequent updates will be issued over the near future. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Jihadi Ops Tempo Statistics (JOTS)
v1.7 - NEW

IntelCenter has just released the "Jihadi Ops Tempo Statistics (JOTS) v1.7". The report provides a statistical breakout of the frequency of al-Qaeda and affiliate operations from 1998 to 19 Aug. 2009. It is a working document and frequent updates will be issued over the near future. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Jihadi Master Video Guide (JMVG)
v1.1

The report is designed to serve as a master reference guide for all jihadi video releases. If you need to make a determination as to whether or not a video is new or locate previously released material, this report will make that process significantly easier and allow you to rapidly narrow down your search much faster. We will be regularly updating the report with new video descriptions and Visual Reference Images (VRIs) and will also continue to add more contextual sections and others that provide further guidance on the issues that arise when attempting to identify and analyze jihadi videos. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

al-Qaeda Messaging Dissemination Link Analysis
v1.0

The chart visually maps al-Qaeda's primary messaging dissemination channels. It will be regularly updated with new and historical information. The thickness of the lines between channels indicates the difference between primary, secondary and tertiary channels. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

al-Zawahiri Video Reference (ZVR)
v1.7

The report provides a reference resource of visual markers for each Ayman al-Zawahiri video released. The guide contains one representative still image from each of the Ayman al-Zawahiri videos. It will be updated as new videos are released and we will also continue to go back through our archive to add stills from older material. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Jihadi Tactical Execution Timing Statistics (JTETS)
v1.3

The report has been updated to include data from the bombings in Amman, Jordan on 9 Nov. 2005. It provides a statistical analysis of the tactical execution timing of jihadi attacks in the al-Qaeda and al-Qaeda affiliate orbits from 1998 to 9 Nov. 2005. The report analyzes the most likely time of day and day of the week for attacks to occur. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Egypt Sharm el-Sheikh Bombings (ESSB)
v1.1

The report provides a breakout of data related to the 23 Jul. 2005 bombings of tourist targets in Sharm el-Sheikh, Egypt. It is a working document and frequent updates will be issued over the near future. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

London Tube Bus Attack (LTBA)
v1.5

The report provides a breakout of data related to the 7 Jul. 2005 attack on the London subway and bus system. It also provides background and context information. It is a working document and frequent updates will be issued over the near future. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Evolution of Jihadi Video - v1.0

The report looks at the evolution of jihadi video from one of the first produced videos by the Chechen rebels to the now more than a dozen different jihadi groups releasing video material. It breaks out the seven types of jihadi videos and the intended audiences. The report also contains stills from numerous videos and descriptions of 18 different jihadi video releases. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

al-Qaeda Operational Tempo - Madrid
Follow-on Attack Assessment - v1.0

The 7-page report examines al-Qaeda's increased operational tempo and the likelihood of follow-on attacks to the 11 March Madrid train bombings. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here. You can download a larger image of the "al-Qaeda 2003 Operational Tempo: Multiple Large-Scale Strikes in Rapid Succession Chart", which is contained within the report, by clicking here.

al-Qaeda's "Badr al-Riyadh" Video - v1.1

IntelCenter has released a new report entitled, "al-Qaeda's "Badr al-Riyadh" Video v1.1". The 55-page report contains details on al-Qaeda's "Badr al-Riyadh" video which was released on 4 Feb. 2004. The report also contains numerous stills from the video. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

al-Qaeda's Riyadh Martyrdom Tapes - v1.0

IntelCenter has released a new report entitled, "al-Qaeda's Riyadh Martyrdom Tapes v1.0". The 16-page report provides still shots and analysis of the nearly 1-hour produced video released by al-Qaeda's Sahab Institute for Media Production on 17 Oct. 2003. The video contains a live audio recording of the May 2003 Riyadh attacks as they occurred and four martyrdom tapes from the attackers, as well as a statement from Sheikh Abu Omar Mohammed al-Saif and video of Osama bin Laden. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

al-Qaeda Individuals/Organizations Link Analysis - v0.9
12 July 2003

This link analysis chart represents only a small fraction of the al-Qaeda organization and is not comprehensive in any area. It is provided simply as a visual aid in understanding the complex network behind al-Qaeda and its affiliates. IntelCenter will be releasing additional versions in the future which will provide more details. Please note that while icons are generally current as of the release date (i.e. dead, prisoner, etc.) linkages represent an extended period of time and are not necessarily still active. PDF and Analyst's Notebook 6 versions are available. In order manipulate the data and run cluster and path analysis tools, you need the full version of Analyst's Notebook 6. To download the PDF version of the report, please click here.

al-Qaeda Threat to Oil Industry and US Allies
v1.0 - 16 October 2002

To download the PDF version of the "al-Qaeda Threat to Oil Industry and US Allies v1.0", please click here.

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al-Qaeda Tactic/Target Brief v1.5
14 June 2002

To download the PDF version of the "al-Qaeda Tactic/Target Brief v1.5", please click here.

al-Qaeda Attack/Messaging Statistics - v1.0

IntelCenter has released a new report entitled, "al-Qaeda Attack/Messaging Statistics v1.0". The 14-page report provides a statistical breakdown of the timing of attacks by al-Qaeda and its affiliates over the course of the past five years, as well as the public and semi-public messaging by the group going back to 1993. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

al-Qaeda/al-Ablaj Threat Assessment - v1.0

IntelCenter has released a new report entitled, "al-Qaeda/al-Ablaj Threat Assessment v1.0". The 9-page report examines the messages sent by al-Qaeda member Abu Mohammed al-Ablaj to al-Majallah in the first half of 2003. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here. A LAW ENFORCEMENT SENSITIVE version of this report is available in the IntelCenter SIG section of the FBI's LEO network.



Gaza Response:
Analysis of Jihadist Statements & Threatened Targets
v1.0 - 30 Jan. 2009

The US and Europe are among the most threatened by jihadists following Israel's recent operations in Gaza. IntelCenter's "Gaza Response: Analysis of Jihadist Statements & Threatened Targets v1.0 - 30 Jan. 2009" report illustrates how developments in one part of the world can significantly increase the threat level faced by countries not directly involved. Since there is a well-established correlation between changes in threat messaging and where attacks are executed, especially for groups in the al-Qaeda orbit, there is a significant level of increased risk faced by those targets identified in this report. Twenty-three out of 53 statements issued by jihadists on Gaza included threats. The US was the target of 46.7% of the threats while Israel came in at 30% and Europe 10%. Israel's withdrawal of forces is unlikely to have a significant calming effect and the motivation for retaliatory strikes will remain high for the forseeable future. Terrorist planning for large-scale events occurs over a period of month and years, not weeks. The impact of this planning cycle is that retaliatory attacks are likely to occur long after the most recent fighting in Gaza has been forgotten in the West but will still be fresh in the minds of jihadists. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.


al-Qaeda Messaging Statistics (QMS)
v3.3

The report provides a baseline for understanding al-Qaeda's as-Sahab Institute for Media Production messaging efforts in terms of its focus, resource allocation and ultimately al-Qaeda's messaging strategy. It contains a statistical breakout of as-Sahab releases from 2002 to 9 Sep. 2007. It is a working document and frequent updates will be issued over the near future. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Jihadi Attack Kill Statistics (JAKS)
v1.8

The report provides a statistical breakout of the number killed per attack for the 63 most significant attacks conducted by al-Qaeda or its affiliates during the past nearly 10 years. The period covered begins with the East Africa Embassy bombings in 1998 and ends with the tourist bus bombing in Meknes, Morocco on 13 Aug. 2007. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Iraqi Insurgent Linkages Based on Recent Group Statements Chart - 13 Feb. 2006

The chart illustrates a number of significant changes among particular Jihadist groups operating in Iraq. Group messaging from Nov. 2005 to 13 Feb. 2006 was used to examine joint statements, operations a group said were conducted jointly and structural changes announced by the groups. The most significant is the establishment of the Mujahideen Shura Council in Iraq in Jan. 2006 that now encompasses Qaeda al-Jihad Organization in the Land of Two Rivers. This chart reflects only a small number of the groups currently operating in Iraq but does provide key insights into two separate centers of gravity Qaeda al-Jihad Organization in the Land of Two Rivers and the Islamic Army in Iraq (IAI). The situation is constantly shifting and while the chart may accurately depict alliances/cooperation today, interaction levels between groups may change dramatically as time goes on. To view the public JPG version of the chart, please click here.

al-Qaeda Warning Cycle Completion for CONUS
(QWCC-CONUS) v1.1

The 33-page report contains an analysis of indicators pointing to the completion of al-Qaeda's warning cycle for a mass casualty attack in CONUS. The executive summary states: The 29 Oct. 2004 video Address to Americans from Osama bin Laden may mark the completion of al-Qaeda's warning cycle to the US before it executes a mass casualty attack in CONUS. Taking into consideration al-Qaeda's sense of time and that we are now 13 months past the 29 Oct. address, we are currently in a high threat period for an attack in CONUS based on analysis of al-Qaeda messaging and its correlation to targeting. The heightened threat period began in Oct. 2005, roughly 12 months after the close of the warning cycle, and will continue for the foreseeable future. The completion of the warning cycle opens the door to execution. Operational factors will ultimately decide the execution time of the attack. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Ayman al-Zawahiri Audio/Video Release Analysis (AZAVRA) v1.1

The report provides initial analysis of the 4 Aug. 2005 video released by Ayman al-Zawahiri. It also provides an analysis of the possible correlation between signature al-Qaeda attacks and the timing of audio/video releases by al-Zawahiri. It is a working document and frequent updates will be issued over the near future. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

London Tube Bus Attack Follow-On Strike (LTBAFS)
v1.3

The report provides a breakout of data related to the 21 Jul. 2005 attack on the London Underground train and bus system. It is a working document and frequent updates will be issued over the near future. For details on the 7 Jul. attack and additional background and context, please look at the most recent version of the "London Tube Bus Attack" report. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

al-Qaeda Messaging/Attacks Timeline - v8.0 - NEW

The timeline covers statements and other significant public and semi-public communications by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. The timeline also covers significant attacks by al-Qaeda and its affiliates. This version covers the period from January 2009 to 22 July 2010. The prior period from 29 December 1992 to the end of 2009 is available in the book entitled, “al-Qaeda Messaging/Attacks Timeline 1992-2009” (ISBN 978-1606760253). To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.

Osama bin Laden Message Analysis & Threat Assessment (OBL-MATA) - v1.1

The report contains a threat assessment on the likelihood of a follow-on attack designed to come within 60 days of the 29 Oct. 2004 video address by Osama bin Laden. It also examines bin Laden's address and places it in the context of his earlier addresses to Americans and others. To download the public PDF version of the report, please click here.